Box Office Predictions: Sam Raimi’s horror return has unexpected competition

Chris

Earlier this week, the number-one movie at the box office this weekend seemed like a no-brainer. Sam Raimi’s Send Help, starring Rachel McAdams and Dylan O’Brien, is riding a wave of excellent reviews (including one from our own Tyler Nichols) and looked poised to cruise to the top spot.

However, there’s a major wildcard entering the race: the adaptation of the viral video game Iron Lung, which is also opening this weekend and could very well steal the crown.

What Is Iron Lung?

Iron Lung is a self-funded film adaptation of the hit indie horror video game, produced by YouTuber Markiplier. The movie is launching on roughly 2,000 screens nationwide, which is no small feat for an independently financed project. It’s also generating strong buzz online, helped along by viral marketing and fan-driven hype—including a 3D-printable popcorn bucket, which our own Mike Conway has already printed to bring to his screening tonight:

@joblomovies

3d printing the @markiplier Iron Lung popcorn bucket. #ironlung #markiplier #popcornbucket #movietok

♬ original sound – AMC Theatres

The big question is how well a viral, creator-driven movie like Iron Lung can perform theatrically. There’s no perfect comparison point, but a $10 million opening weekend feels like the floor, not the ceiling. If Gen Z turns out in force—as early buzz suggests—it could open significantly higher.

Box Office Predictions

For now, I’m still betting on Send Help to take the top spot with around $15 million, but this could easily turn into a weekend where Iron Lung surprises everyone and dominates instead.

Elsewhere on the chart:

• Avatar: Fire and Ash should slip into third place with roughly $6–7 million.
• Jason Statham’s latest action film, Shelter, is expected to open on the lower end of his usual range, with about $5 million. That’s likely due to its smaller distributor, as Black Bear financed and is releasing the film rather than one of Statham’s typical major studio partners.
• Zootopia 2 should round out the top five with approximately $4 million.

Our Weekend Box Office Predictions

1. Send Help – $15 million
2. Iron Lung – $10 million
3. Avatar: Fire and Ash – $7 million
4. Shelter – $5 million
5. Zootopia 2 – $4 million

What are you seeing this weekend? Let us know in the comments.

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